Cardiff Council is currently preparing a Local Development Plan that will set out the future level of growth for the city. To inform work on this process, the Council has appointed an expert advisor to independently assess future population projections for the City, a key issue that has major implications for the level of new development and the provision of Council services.
Population projections issued by the Wales Assembly Government last year show an unprecedented predicted increase in Cardiff’s population. For the period 2008-2033, the figures predict a 42% rise in Cardiff’s population from 322,000 to 458,000 which would amount to some 50,000 extra dwellings over the LDP plan period of 2006-26. This contrasts strongly with many other authorities in the region where the level of growth is minimal or in decline.
In response to these figures, Cardiff County Council has now commissioned Doctor Peter Boden of Edge Analytics to provide a report on the quality of these predictions and consider the merit of other possible growth levels. Doctor Boden is a specialist of UK standing in demographic analysis with a particular expertise in international migration (one of the reasons behind the Assembly’s high figures).
Council Leader Rodney Berman stated, “Given the importance and implications of this issue, we feel it is vital not just to accept the latest figures issued by the Assembly at face value. These figures are critical to understand so that the development of Cardiff and the wider region can be more carefully planned for. This assessment will bring a much needed independent expert analysis on the most justifiable, sustainable and deliverable level of future growth for our city. The South East Wales region depends on a clear and accurate picture of our population now and going forward and we look forward to working with Dr Boden to achieve that goal.”
Councillor Margaret Jones, Executive Member for the Environment added, “We have serious concerns with how the Assembly can justify such huge figures. This is particularly so when their figures issued just two years previously showed a far more limited level of future predicted growth”.
