The South Wales valleys are least resilient to economic shocks, BBC-commissioned research suggests.
New research commissioned by BBC Cymru Wales also reveals a north-south divide, with a greater concentration of counties in the north showing more resilience to the cuts compared to the south. It also shows dramatic differences in the way counties just a few miles apart will cope with further economic downturns.
The research carried out by Experian aims to show the ability of areas to withstand and respond to shocks such as job cuts.
The BBC commissioned the research as part of The Spending Review: Making it Clear season, which looks at the UK Government’s plans to make deep public sector savings.
The results of the coalition government’s spending review will be announced in October, when it will be revealed which departments will see their budgets cut and by how much.
BBC Cymru Wales will be revealing the results of the research in Spending Review: The Wales Debate tonight (Tuesday, October 12) on BBC One Wales at 10.35pm.
According to the research, Monmouthshire is the most resilient area in Wales, followed by Powys and Ceredigion, the information suggests, while Blaenau Gwent is the least resilient county.
Researchers looked at four key themes – business, community, people and place and 31 different factors were examined to produce the index.
They studied the strength of the local business base, people’s skill levels, life expectancy, crime rates and house prices. The ranking is influenced by a number of factors – from the number of business professionals to the percentage of green space an area has.
Wales’s 22 local authority areas are given an overall ranking – from most resilient to least resilient or most vulnerable.
A North-South divide emerged, with Flintshire, Gwynedd, Conwy and Anglesey and Denbighshire amongst the dozen most resilient counties. The South Wales valleys of Rhondda Cynon Taff, Caerphilly, Merthyr Tydfil, and Blaenau Gwent were amongst the least resilient.
Powys and Cardiff have highly resilient business bases, Merthyr Tydfil has the lowest of all Welsh counties – it has the lowest concentration of resilient sectors and few high growth sectors as well as a proportion of vulnerable sectors. It also has the second highest insolvency rate in Wales.
Powys and Ceredigion have the highest “community resilience” with Ceredigion coming out on top for the lowest benefit claimant count in Wales as well as having the lowest concentration of households vulnerable to long-term unemployed and no deprived areas. Merthyr Tydfil scored lowest for community resilience.
Monmouthshire was said to have the highest “people resilience” with the highest concentration of highly qualified workers while the Vale of Glamorgan had the lowest rate of unqualified workers. Blaenau Gwent was bottom of that league table.
Spending Review: The Wales Debate on BBC One Wales tonight at 10.35pm.
